Shinoda Says Commercial Real Estate Has Bottomed

Commercial real estate may have finally found its floor, according to DoubleLine's Ken Shinoda, who says the sector faces better days after a bruising stretch.

Speaking on a special edition of Bloomberg The Close from Los Angeles, Shinoda outlined a more constructive view on property markets while also discussing the broader path for housing and mortgages. His comments matter because he leads non-agency residential mortgage-backed securities at DoubleLine, placing him close to the fault lines where real estate, credit and investor appetite meet.

Commercial real estate has likely bottomed, Shinoda said, signaling that he sees the worst of the downturn as largely past.

The signal stands out after months of anxiety over property values, refinancing pressure and higher borrowing costs. If that pressure starts to ease, investors may begin to treat beaten-down real estate assets less like a warning sign and more like an opening. Reports indicate Shinoda tied that outlook to a broader read on mortgage markets and the future direction of housing, where financing conditions still shape nearly every decision.

That does not mean the sector suddenly looks easy. Commercial real estate still faces uneven demand, tighter lending and a market that punishes weak balance sheets. But a bottom call shifts the debate. It suggests the central question may no longer be how deep the pain goes, but which parts of the market recover first and how quickly capital returns.

What happens next will hinge on rates, refinancing conditions and whether confidence spreads beyond a narrow group of investors. For landlords, lenders and mortgage buyers, even a tentative turn in commercial real estate could ripple across housing finance and credit markets. If Shinoda's view holds, the story now moves from damage control to early recovery.