Oil markets rarely need much encouragement to panic, and Kpler has just sketched out a scenario that would rattle traders, governments, and consumers alike.

Homayoun Falakshahi, Kpler’s head of crude oil analysis, told Bloomberg Television that Brent crude could climb back to roughly $120 to $125 a barrel if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for another two months. He also said that if the US sustains its blockade over that period, Iran’s oil revenues would drop to zero. The warning lands as investors fix their attention on the next move in US-Iran peace talks and try to gauge whether diplomacy can cool a fast-tightening energy risk.

If the Strait of Hormuz stays shut for another two months, Kpler warns Brent could return to roughly $120 to $125 a barrel.

The Strait of Hormuz sits at the center of the global oil system, so any prolonged disruption there carries consequences far beyond the region. Even without a confirmed timeline for resolution, the prospect of restricted flows can reshape pricing almost instantly. Reports indicate that traders now face a market driven not only by supply and demand, but by political endurance: how long Washington can maintain pressure, how long Tehran can absorb it, and whether talks can outrun the economic damage.

Key Facts

  • Kpler’s Homayoun Falakshahi said Brent could reach about $120 to $125 a barrel if disruption lasts another two months.
  • Falakshahi said Iran’s oil revenues would fall to zero if the US sustains its blockade for that period.
  • Investors are watching the next step in US-Iran peace talks for clues on market direction.
  • The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint for global energy flows.

The market message looks simple, even if the politics do not: duration matters. A brief shock can spike prices, then fade. A two-month closure, by contrast, would test inventories, strain shipping patterns, and force buyers to reassess risk across the entire crude complex. Sources suggest that investors now see negotiations and maritime access as tightly linked variables, with each headline capable of moving prices well before any actual barrels disappear.

What happens next will depend on whether diplomacy produces a path to de-escalation before the market starts pricing in a longer crisis. If talks stall and the blockade holds, energy costs could rise quickly and spread through transport, industry, and household budgets. That is why this warning matters now: it frames the Strait of Hormuz not as a distant flashpoint, but as a direct lever on the global economy.