The danger from the Iran war may reach dinner tables thousands of miles away, as the head of the world’s largest fertiliser company warns that Africa’s poorest countries could get squeezed out of vital supplies.

Svein Tore Holsether, chief executive of Yara International, says the conflict could trigger “dramatic consequences” if leaders fail to contain disruptions in fertiliser markets. His warning cuts to the heart of a fragile global system: when fertiliser prices spike or supplies tighten, farmers plant less, yields fall, and food prices climb. In vulnerable communities, that chain reaction can turn economic stress into outright shortages.

The central fear is a global scramble for fertiliser that prices out the countries least able to compete.

Holsether warns against what amounts to a de facto global auction, where richer buyers lock in supply while poorer countries struggle to afford what remains. Reports indicate the greatest risk falls on parts of Africa already exposed to high food costs, import dependence, and weak buffers against external shocks. In that environment, even a short period of disruption can hit hard and spread fast.

Key Facts

  • Yara International’s chief executive says the Iran war could have “dramatic consequences” for food systems.
  • The warning centers on potential fertiliser shortages and sharp price rises.
  • Poorest countries, particularly in Africa, could be pushed aside in a global scramble for supply.
  • Higher fertiliser costs can reduce farm output and drive up food prices.

The warning also underscores how tightly energy, conflict, and agriculture now intersect. Fertiliser sits near the base of the global food chain, and any shock to its availability ripples outward quickly. Sources suggest policymakers now face a familiar test: move early to steady supply and prices, or wait until market panic and hunger pressures force a more costly response.

What happens next will matter far beyond commodity markets. If the conflict deepens or supply fears intensify, governments and aid agencies may have to compete harder for scarce inputs just as vulnerable populations need relief most. The stakes are plain: preventing a fertiliser crunch now could help avert a broader food crisis later.