Canadians are retreating from major US city trips at a pace that far exceeds what official border numbers show.

Researchers at the University of Toronto say a new tool that tracks cell phone activity found a year-over-year median decline of about 42% in Canadian visits to US metropolitan areas during the second Trump administration. That drop stands well above official border-crossing data, which reports indicate showed a decline of roughly 25%. The gap suggests the shift may hit urban destinations especially hard, even if broader cross-border travel has not fallen as steeply.

Key Facts

  • University of Toronto researchers tracked cell phone activity to measure travel patterns.
  • The tool found an approximate 42% median annual drop in Canadian visits to US metropolitan areas.
  • Official border-crossing data showed a smaller decline of roughly 25%.
  • The findings suggest Canadians may be avoiding US cities in particular.

The distinction matters. Border counts capture crossings in the aggregate, but they do not show where travelers go after they enter the country. This research points to a sharper pullback in big urban centers, a sign that Canadians may be changing not just how often they travel south, but which destinations they now skip. For tourism boards, hotels, retailers, and airlines tied to cross-border city traffic, that difference could carry real economic weight.

The new data suggests the slowdown in Canadian travel may center on US metropolitan areas, not just the border itself.

The findings also sharpen the political backdrop around travel behavior. The researchers link the decline to the second Trump administration, though the summary stops short of assigning a single cause. Reports indicate the data captures a broad behavioral shift rather than an isolated dip, and it raises a larger question about whether politics, perception, and traveler comfort now shape cross-border choices as much as price or convenience.

What comes next will matter on both sides of the border. Researchers will likely face pressure to test the pattern over a longer period and across more regions, while officials and businesses will watch for signs of recovery or further erosion. If Canadians continue to avoid US metro areas specifically, the story will move beyond travel numbers and into the wider health of one of North America’s most important everyday relationships.